Stability and change in fertility intentions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya

Fertility intentions are expected to decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic but limited empirical research on this topic has been conducted in sub-Saharan Africa. Longitudinal data from Kenya, with baseline (November 2019) and follow-up (June 2020) data, were used to 1) assess the extent to which individual-level fertility intentions changed, and 2) examine how security, specifically economic and health security, affected fertility intentions. The final sample included 3,095 women. The primary outcomes were change in quantum and timing. Exploratory analyses described overall changes within the sample and logistic regression models assessed sociodemographic and COVID-19 related correlates of change, specifically income loss at the household level, food insecurity, and ability to socially distance. Approximately 85% of women reported consistent fertility intentions related to both the number and timing of childbearing. No COVID-19-related factors were related to changing quantum intentions. Women who reported chronic food insecurity had 4.78 times the odds of accelerating their desired timing to next birth compared to those who reported no food insecurity (95% CI: 1.53–14.93), with a significant interaction by wealth. The COVID-19 pandemic did not lead to widespread changes in fertility intentions in Kenya, though the most vulnerable women may have accelerated their childbearing intentions.

Trends in fertility intentions and contraceptive practices in the context of COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa: insights from four national and regional population-based cohorts.

OBJECTIVES: Studies in several sub-Saharan geographies conducted early in the COVID-19 pandemic suggested little impact on contraceptive behaviours. Initial results may mask widening disparities with rising poverty, and changes to women's pregnancy desires and contraceptive use amid prolonged health service disruptions. This study examined trends in contraceptive behaviours in four sub-Saharan African settings 1 year into the pandemic. DESIGN: Nationally and regionally representative longitudinal surveys. SETTING: Burkina Faso, Kenya, Democratic Republic of Congo (Kinshasa) and Nigeria (Lagos). PARTICIPANTS: Women aged 15-49 years with sample size ranging from 1469 in Nigeria to 9477 in Kenya. OUTCOME MEASURES: Fertility preferences, contraceptive use and unintended pregnancies measured before COVID-19 (November 2019 to January 2020) and during COVID-19 (November 2020 to January 2021). ANALYSIS: We described population-level and individual-level changes by socioeconomic characteristics using generalised equation modelling. We used logistic regression models to identify factors related to contraceptive adoption and discontinuation and to experiencing an unintended pregnancy. RESULTS: At the population level, we found no change in women's exposure to unintended pregnancy risk, alongside 5-9 percentage point increases in contraceptive prevalence in Burkina Faso, Kenya and Lagos. Reliance on provider-dependent methods dropped by 2 and 4 percentage points in Kenya and Burkina Faso, respectively, although these declines were not statistically significant. Between 1.0% and 2.8% of women across sites experienced an unintended pregnancy during COVID-19, with no significant change over time. Individual-level trajectories showed contraceptive adoption was more common than discontinuation in Burkina Faso, Kenya and Lagos, with little difference by sociodemographic characteristics. Women's COVID-19-related economic vulnerability was unrelated to unintended pregnancy across sites. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the resilience of African women across diverse settings in sustaining contraceptive practices amid the COVID-19 pandemic. However, with reports of rising poverty in sub-Saharan Africa, there is continued need to monitor access to essential sexual and reproductive health services.

Violence against women from partners and other household members during COVID-19 in Burkina Faso and Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Global evidence indicates increases in gender-based violence (GBV) during the COVID-19 pandemic following mitigation measures, such as stay at home orders. Indirect effects of the pandemic, including income loss, strained social support, and closed or inaccessible violence response services, may further exacerbate GBV and undermine help-seeking. In Kenya and Burkina Faso, as in many settings, GBV was prevalent prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Studies specific to COVID-impact on GBV in Kenya indicate mixed results and there remains a lack of evidence from Burkina Faso. Our study takes a comprehensive lens by addressing both intimate partner violence (IPV) and non-partner household abuse through the COVID-19 pandemic in two priority settings. METHODS: Annual, national cross-sections of women ages 15-49 completed survey data collection in November-December 2020 and December 2020-March 2021; the GBV module was limited to one woman per household [Kenya n = 6715; Burkina n = 4065]. Descriptive statistics, Venn diagrams, and logistic and multinomial regression characterized prevalence of IPV and other household abuse, frequency relative to the COVID-19 pandemic, help-seeking behaviors, and predictors of IPV and household abuse across the socioecological framework. RESULTS: In both settings, past-year IPV prevalence exceeded non-partner household abuse (Kenya: 23.5%IPV, 11.0%household; Burkina Faso: 25.7%IPV, 16.2%household). Over half of those affected in each setting did not seek help; those that did turned first to family. Among those with past-year experiences, increased frequency since COVID-19 was noted for IPV (16.0%Burkina Faso; 33.6%Kenya) and household violence (14.3%Burkina Faso; 26.2%Kenya). Both context-specific (i.e., financial autonomy in Burkina Faso) and universal (i.e., COVID-related income loss) risk factors emerged. CONCLUSION: Past-year IPV and household violence against women in Kenya and Burkina Faso were prevalent, and in some cases, intensified during the COVID-19 pandemic. Across settings, help-seeking from formal services was notably low, likely reflecting shame, blame, and stigmatization identified as barriers in pre-COVID literature. Both primary prevention and survivor-centered support services, including those related to economic empowerment, should be integrated within COVID-recovery efforts, and extended into the post-pandemic period to fully meet women's safety needs.

Self-injected contraceptives: does the investment reflect women's preferences?

Subcutaneous depot medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA-SC) is an innovative contraceptive method aimed at meeting women's unique circumstances and needs, largely due to its ability to be self-injected. Substantial research and advocacy investments have been made to promote roll-out of DMPA-SC across sub-Saharan Africa. To date, research on the demand for DMPA-SC as a self-injectable method has been conducted largely with healthcare providers, via qualitative research, or with highly specific subsamples that are not population based. Using three recent rounds of data from Performance Monitoring for Action, we examined population-representative trends in demand, use, and preference for self-injection among current non-users in Burkina Faso, the Democratic Republic of Congo (Kinshasa and Kongo Central regions), Kenya, and Nigeria (Lagos and Kano States). We found that while over 80.0% of women had heard of injectables across settings, few women had heard of self-injection (ranging from 13.0% in Kenya to 24.8% in Burkina Faso). Despite initial increases in DMPA-SC prevalence, DMPA-SC usage began to stagnate or even decrease in all settings in the recent three years (except in Nigeria-Kano). Few (0.0%-16.7%) current DMPA-SC users were self-injecting, and the majority instead were relying on a healthcare provider for administration of DMPA-SC. Among current contraceptive non-users wishing to use an injectable in the future, only 1.5%-11.4% preferred to self-inject. Our results show that self-injection is uncommon, and demand for self-injection is very limited across six settings, calling for further qualitative and quantitative research on women's views on DMPA-SC and self-injection and, ultimately, their contraceptive preferences and needs.

Stability and change in fertility intentions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya.

Fertility intentions are expected to decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic but limited empirical research on this topic has been conducted in sub-Saharan Africa. Longitudinal data from Kenya, with baseline (November 2019) and follow-up (June 2020) data, were used to 1) assess the extent to which individual-level fertility intentions changed, and 2) examine how security, specifically economic and health security, affected fertility intentions. The final sample included 3,095 women. The primary outcomes were change in quantum and timing. Exploratory analyses described overall changes within the sample and logistic regression models assessed sociodemographic and COVID-19 related correlates of change, specifically income loss at the household level, food insecurity, and ability to socially distance. Approximately 85% of women reported consistent fertility intentions related to both the number and timing of childbearing. No COVID-19-related factors were related to changing quantum intentions. Women who reported chronic food insecurity had 4.78 times the odds of accelerating their desired timing to next birth compared to those who reported no food insecurity (95% CI: 1.53-14.93), with a significant interaction by wealth. The COVID-19 pandemic did not lead to widespread changes in fertility intentions in Kenya, though the most vulnerable women may have accelerated their childbearing intentions.

The wealth gradient and the effect of COVID-19 restrictions on income loss, food insecurity and health care access in four sub-Saharan African geographies.

INTRODUCTION: While there has been considerable analysis of the health and economic effects of COVID-19 in the Global North, representative data on the distribution and depth of social and economic impacts in Africa has been more limited. METHODS: We analyze household data collected prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and during the first wave of COVID in four African countries. We evaluate the short-term changes to household economic status and assess women's access to health care during the first wave of COVID-19 in nationally representative samples of women aged 15-49 in Kenya and Burkina Faso, and in sub-nationally representative samples of women aged 15-49 in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo and Lagos, Nigeria. We examine prevalence and distribution of household income loss, food insecurity, and access to health care during the COVID-19 lockdowns across residence and pre-pandemic wealth categories. We then regress pre-pandemic individual and household sociodemographic characteristics on the three outcomes. RESULTS: In three out of four samples, over 90% of women reported partial or complete loss of household income since the beginning of the coronavirus restrictions. Prevalence of food insecurity ranged from 17.0% (95% CI 13.6-20.9) to 39.8% (95% CI 36.0-43.7), and the majority of women in food insecure households reported increases in food insecurity during the COVID-19 restriction period. In contrast, we did not find significant barriers to accessing health care during COVID restrictions. Between 78·3% and 94·0% of women who needed health care were able successfully access it. When we examined pre-pandemic sociodemographic correlates of the outcomes, we found that the income shock of COVID-19 was substantial and distributed similarly across wealth groups, but food insecurity was concentrated among poorer households. Contrary to a-priori expectations, we find little evidence of women experiencing barriers to health care, but there is significant need for food support.

Need for and use of contraception by women before and during COVID-19 in four sub-Saharan African geographies: results from population-based national or regional cohort surveys.

BACKGROUND: Although hindrances to the sexual and reproductive health of women are expected because of COVID-19, the actual effect of the pandemic on contraceptive use and unintended pregnancy risk in women, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, remains largely unknown. We aimed to examine population-level changes in the need for and use of contraception by women during the COVID-19 pandemic, determine if these changes differed by sociodemographic characteristics, and compare observed changes during the COVID-19 pandemic with trends in the 2 preceding years. METHODS: In this study, we used four rounds of Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA) population-based survey data collected in four geographies: two at the country level (Burkina Faso and Kenya) and two at the subnational level (Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo and Lagos, Nigeria). These geographies were selected for this study as they completed surveys immediately before the onset of COVID-19 and implemented a follow-up specific to COVID-19. The first round comprised the baseline PMA panel survey implemented between November, 2019, and February, 2020 (referred to as baseline). The second round comprised telephone-based follow-up surveys between May 28 and July 20, 2020 (referred to as COVID-19 follow-up). The third and fourth rounds comprised two previous cross-sectional survey rounds implemented in the same geographies between 2017 and 2019. FINDINGS: Our analyses were restricted to 7245 women in union (married or living with a partner, as if married) who were interviewed at baseline and COVID-19 follow-up. The proportion of women in need of contraception significantly increased in Lagos only, by 5·81 percentage points (from 74·5% to 80·3%). Contraceptive use among women in need increased significantly in the two rural geographies, with a 17·37 percentage point increase in rural Burkina Faso (30·7% to 48·1%) and a 7·35 percentage point increase in rural Kenya (71·6% to 78·9%). These overall trends mask several distinct patterns by sociodemographic group. Specifically, there was an increase in the need for contraception among nulliparous women across all geographies investigated. INTERPRETATION: Our findings do not support the anticipated deleterious effect of COVID-19 on access to and use of contraceptive services by women in the earliest stages of the pandemic. Although these results are largely encouraging, we warn that these trends might not be sustainable throughout prolonged economic hardship and service disruptions. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. TRANSLATION: For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Contraceptive dynamics during COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa: longitudinal evidence from Burkina Faso and Kenya.

INTRODUCTION: Evidence from health emergencies suggests COVID-19 will disrupt women's sexual and reproductive health (SRH). In sub-Saharan Africa, which experiences the highest rates of unintended pregnancy and unsafe abortion globally, COVID-19 is projected to slow recent progress toward universal access to contraceptive services. METHODS: We used longitudinal data collected from women at risk of unintended pregnancy in Burkina Faso (n=1186) and Kenya (n=2784) before (November 2019-February 2020) and during (May-July 2020) COVID-19 to quantify contraceptive dynamics during COVID-19; examine sociodemographic factors and COVID-19 experiences related to contraceptive dynamics; and assess COVID-19-related reasons for contraceptive non-use. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions were used to examine correlates of contraceptive dynamics amid COVID-19. RESULTS: Most women did not change their contraceptive status during COVID-19 (68.6% in Burkina Faso and 81.6% in Kenya) and those who did were more likely to adopt a method (25.4% and 13.1%, respectively) than to discontinue (6.0% and 5.3%, respectively). Most women who switched contraceptives were using methods as or more effective than their pre-pandemic contraception. Economic instability related to COVID-19 was associated with increased contraceptive protection in Burkina Faso but not in Kenya. Altogether, 14.4% of non-contraceptive users in Kenya and 3.8% in Burkina Faso identified COVID-19-related reasons for non-use. CONCLUSIONS: The vast majority of women at risk of unintended pregnancy did not change their contraceptive status during COVID-19, and more women adopted than discontinued methods. A minority of women reported COVID-19-related reasons for non-use, underscoring the importance of expanding safe modes of service delivery during health crises.